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13-July-1984
Dear Cecil:
Recently I saw a movie on cable TV called "The Man Who Saw
Tomorrow," about Michael Nostradamus the prognosticator. That film
scared the hell out of me. Nostradamus claims that first Halley's
comet will screw up the entire world and then in the 1990s a Middle
East/Russian collaboration will wage nuclear war on the West for 27
years, after which the U.S. and Russia will join together again to
defeat the Islamic horde. Should I begin to say my prayers? How
good was Nostradamus at predicting the future? Did Orson Welles
(the film's narrator) con me once again? --Lisa Leslie, River
Forest
Dear Lisa:
There are two schools of thought on Nostradamus: either (1) he had
supernatural powers which enabled him to prophesy the future with
uncanny accuracy, or (2) he did for bullshit what Stonehenge did
for rocks. I incline to the latter view.
Michel de Nostredame (Nostradamus in Latin) was born in southern
France in 1503. Intelligent and well-educated, he worked as a
traveling physician for many years, but late in life his reason
failed him and he decided to become a free-lance writer. Among his
works (which included a collection of jelly recipes, charmingly
enough) were several books of prophecy, organized into sets of 100
quatrains, or "centuries."
There were so many of these prophecies and they were so vaguely
written that they could be made to apply to nearly anything. For
example, one quatrain predicted prosperity for Henry II, the king
of France. Unfortunately, Henry was killed in a jousting accident
a couple years later.
No problem--someone discovered the following gem among the 940 or
so other quatrains: "The young lion shall overcome the old/On the
field of battle in single combat;/In a cage of gold he shall pierce
his eyes:/Two knells one, then to die, a cruel death" (sic). It was
pointed out that a sliver from the lance of Henry's opponent had
penetrated the king's golden helmet and pierced his eye and brain.
Furthermore, the king was seven years older than his opponent.
Ergo, Nostradamus had really been on target after all. (After
Nostradamus's death, some editors amended the enigmatic last line
to read, "two wounds [from] one," which fits the circumstances even
better.) Fast shuffles like this do wonders for a guy's reputation.
True believers have since applied Mike's predictions to nearly
every significant event in the 400 years since his death in 1566.
This effort has been aided, for those not fluent in French, by
convenient mistranslations.
For example, the People's
Almanac gives one verse as follows: "The captive prince, conquered,
to Elba,/He will pass the Gulf of Genoa by sea to Marseilles,/He is
completely conquered by a great effort of foreign forces,/Though he
escapes the fire, the bees yield liquor by the barrel."
The mention of Elba makes this otherwise ambiguous quatrain appear
to apply to Napoleon. In fact, however, the original has "aux
Itales," which is generally translated as "in Italy," not "to
Elba." (The more imaginative, it must be conceded, claim "Itales"
derives from "Aethalia," the classical name for Elba.)
Similarly, some say the following verse predicts the Great Fire of
London in 1666: "The blood of the just shall be dry in
London./Burnt by the fire of 3 times 20 and 6./The ancient dame
shall fall from her high place,/Of the same sect many shall be
killed." The ancient dame supposedly was the statue of the Virgin
on St. Paul's cathedral.
Sounds convincing, but a literal translation of the first two lines
is far more cryptic: "The blood of the just will commit a fault at
London,/Burnt through lightning of twenty three the sixes."
Yet
another verse mentions a certain "Hister," which some claim refers
to Adolph Hitler. In fact, though, Hister is simply the classical
name for the Lower Danube, and Nostradamus uses it as such in
several instances.
Supposed predictions by Nostradamus of future wars and disasters
are equally implausible. I didn't see the movie you allude to, but
other scenarios I've come across talk about an alliance between the
U.S. and the U.S.S.R. followed by a joint Arab-Chinese invasion of
Europe.
Another quatrain that the sky-is-falling crowd drags out whenever
a comet is sighted goes like this: "A great spherical mountain
[i.e., a meteor] about one mile in diameter/. . . Will roll end over
end, then sink great nations," etc. Once again an overenthusiastic
translator has been at work--the first line is more plausibly
rendered as "a great mountain seven stadia around," and many
Nostradamus buffs say it refers to Vesuvius. In any case, it's not
worth worrying about.
--CECIL ADAMS
The Straight Dope / Questions or
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