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A Staff Report by the Straight Dope Science Advisory Board
29-May-2007
Dear Straight Dope:
What in blazes is going on with the world's bees? I keep reading all these
stories about how a significant percentage of the world's beehives are failing
and that all the bees are dying. No one seems to know why, but there are
explanations aplenty, ranging from global warming to mites to, of all things,
cell phones! What's worse, some of these stories quote Albert Einstein's
predictions that if the world's bees were ever to die off, owing to the lack of
pollinators, humanity would follow about four years later. Is there anything we
can do about this? If the bees all die, are there any substitute pollinators we
can use? Or is Einstein right and we're all doomed?
—Rich Swank, Orlando, FL
SDSTAFF Doug replies:
Not to brag, but thanks to Wikipedia I've become the #1 authority on disappearing bees. Type "colony collapse disorder" into Google and hit return – the top hit is the Wikipedia page I maintain on the subject. (In real life I'm an entomologist with the University of California at Riverside.) Here's a summary.
First and most important: There are some 20,000 species of bees in the world,
and many thousands more types of pollinating insects. What you're hearing about,
"colony collapse disorder," affects one species of bee
– the European honey bee. That species
happens to be the one global agriculture relies upon for about 30% of its
pollination requirements. So while we're not talking about losing all the
world's pollinators, we are talking about losing a significant fraction
of them. That's the worst-case scenario, with the species wiped out completely.
Second, there's no reason at this point to think European honey bees are going
to be wiped out, now or ever. The die-offs so far appear to affect some
beekeepers more than others, sometimes in the same area. That's one reason
scientists are so puzzled, but it strongly suggests the losses may have
something to do with how individual beekeepers are managing their bees. The
"significant percentage" of failing hives is still a drop in the bucket when
viewed against the global population of honey bees, and there are lots of
beekeepers (even in the U.S., which appears hardest hit) who have not had, and
may never have, significant losses of colonies. Plenty of honey bees remain to
replace the ones that have died. It's not yet time to scream that the sky is
falling.
Third, it's almost impossible to get hard numbers on how many colonies have died
recently, and how much of the current uproar is media hype based on guesses,
estimates and anecdotal accounts from the handful of beekeepers who have had the
most colony losses. If you talk to other beekeepers, most admit they have
colonies die off every winter, but they don't always keep records on how many. A
lot of the reports we're hearing are based on personal recollection rather than
careful documentation. In other words, the scary figures you're hearing could be
exaggerated.
Fourth, even the original report describing and naming the phenomenon explicitly
says it's something that has been seen before (repeatedly), named before, and
studied before – in all cases without coming
to any conclusion about the cause. The researchers didn't like the older names
for the syndrome (which usually included the word "disease," which has
connotations about infectiousness that don't seem applicable here), so they
renamed it colony collapse disorder. That point has largely eluded the press,
with the result that most people think this is a new phenomenon, when in fact
the researchers who described it note reports of similar die-offs dating back to
the 1890s.
Fifth, if what we're seeing is indeed a recurrence of a century-old phenomenon,
that's a pretty good argument against theories of causation involving things
that haven't been around that long. Yes, it's an assumption that current and
past die-offs have a common underlying cause. Some researchers don't accept that
assumption – they're the ones proposing
things like pesticides as possible causes, and they may yet prove to be correct,
since some modern pesticides can indeed kill honey bee colonies in a manner
consistent with the present symptoms. But the leading hypothesis in many
researcher's minds is that colonies are dying primarily because of stress.
Stress means something different to a honey bee colony than to a human, but the
basic idea isn't all that alien: If a colony is infected with a fungus, or has
mites, or has pesticides in its honey, or is overheated, or is undernourished,
or is losing workers due to spraying, or any other such thing, then the colony
is experiencing stress. Stress in turn can cause behavioral changes that
exacerbate the problem and lead to worse ones like immune system failure. Colony
stress has existed, in various forms and with various causes, as long as mankind
has kept honey bees, so it could indeed have happened in the 1890s. Many modern
developments like pesticides or mite infestations can also cause stress (in
fact, many of the things theorized to be involved can cause stress, so it's
possible multiple factors are contributing to the problem, not just one).
Unfortunately, stress is difficult to quantify and control experimentally, so it
may never be possible to prove scientifically that colony stress explains all
this year's deaths.
Sixth, it's never a good idea to trust what the media are telling you. At
least once in the present case the media got something completely wrong and
created a huge mess: The story about cell phones was basically a
misrepresentation of what one pair of reporters wrote about a study that they
misinterpreted. In a nutshell, the original research didn't involve cell phones,
and the researchers never said their research was related to honey bee colony
die-offs. Even details like the alleged Einstein quote are dubious. No one has
yet found proof that Einstein said anything about bees dying off
– the earliest documented appearance of the
"quote" is 1994 and, yes, Albert was dead at the time.
The bottom line? No one is certain what's going on, but a lot of the theories
can't – by themselves
– explain everything we're seeing. More
important, the situation hasn't yet risen to the level of a catastrophe (except,
sadly, for some of the affected beekeepers). If the same thing keeps happening
every winter for another decade or so, then we might really start worrying. But
for now, classifying this as a "problem with potentially severe economic impact
should it persist" would be a more realistic assessment.
—SDSTAFF Doug
Straight Dope Science Advisory Board
Staff Reports are researched and written by members of the Straight Dope Science Advisory Board, Cecil's online auxiliary. Although the SDSAB does its best, these articles are edited by Ed Zotti, not Cecil, so accuracywise you'd better keep your fingers crossed.
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